As analysts’ online ad spend predictions remain uncertain, many digital businesses find it hard to get their heads around the market perspectives, let alone effective ways to achieve their revenue goals. Here’s what they should consider. 

If 2025 could be described in one word, it would probably be “turbulence”. In addition to the risk of higher U.S. tariffs imposed, the overall uncertainty on how the galloping adoption of generative AI will be reshaping the digital landscape in the months ahead leaves many publishers wondering whether advertisers are still willing to sustain their ad expenditures, or trim them until things get clearer. 

The Potential Crisis Unseen Coming

Quite predictably, multiple layoffs across the digital ad tech and publishing industries back in 2022 – 2024 were generally perceived as businesses’ justifiable efforts to cut operational costs in favor of the more optimized workflow, hence the experts’ positive outlook on how the market would be feeling in 2025. 

Well, now that Q2 2025 is here, things may be looking a little more vague, to say the least, even in the video ad segment, generally more lucrative for digital publishers, fueled by the overwhelming consequences of wide-range tariffs announced by the U.S. government, in addition to the growingly devastating effects of Google’s AI overviews on their referral traffic.

Unfortunately, some of the Q1 2025 reports prove most of publishers’ fears are justified. 

Namely, the Q1 2025 IAB survey results unveiled that 90%+ advertisers are worried about the possible negative impact of imposed tariffs, too, and 45% of responders do actually plan to cut their ad budgets in 2025, with 17% cuts being projected in the online video segment. 

And outside the U.S., the digital ad market hasn’t been doing that good either. 

In particular, according to the Q1 2025 IPA Bellwether Report data, for instance, over 30% of businesses in the UK feel less optimistic regarding the first quarter results, and a significant share of them have already cut their marketing budgets for it, which marks the first decline in the past 4 years. More importantly, over 17% of UK companies admit they’re expecting a further decline in their marketing spend during the 2025/2026 financial period. 

To make things worse, in tandem with advertisers’ tightening of budgets, the impact of generative AI search, as well as false flagging the sites as “brand-unsafe” due to their news coverage, or even as MFA in some cases, essentially wrecks revenue results across the digital publishing industry, leading to further operational cuts, if not bankruptcies. In this respect, the recently announced Business Insider staff cut by 21% is just one example of the few, but these may become more frequent later on in 2025. 

In Hopes of the Ad Market Resurrection 

If reading the first part of this article, or looking at a company’s digital video ad revenue data from Q1 2025 may leave even a devoted optimist worried, the reality is, the digital ad market isn’t doomed, especially when it comes to its video segment.  

Namely, the latest IAB ad spend report data, released in April 2025, clearly demonstrates the overall advertisers’ preparedness to spend more on video ads, particularly on digital ad video, social video and CTV, which prove crucial for brand equity maintenance. Namely, while the overall digital video ad spend is expected to reach $72,000,000,000 in 2025 (up 14% compared to 2024), the CTV sector is also likely to grow double-digits, i.e. by 13% YoY, with the forecast ad spend exceeding $26,000,000,000 in 2025. 

A little beneath the surface, however, the questions remain on where & how exactly businesses are planning to spend their money on, and if & how companies on the Supply side can improve their video ad revenue outcomes.

Well, according to the IAB data, CPG, retail and pharmaceutical industries are likely to drive most of the video ad spend in 2025, with advertisers’ stressing AI-fueled personalization, advanced targeting and shoppable ad formats as the key deciding factors, regarding audience engagement and actionable campaign results. 

In this respect, what the experts admit is that developing a diversified revenue model remains vital for digital publishers in view of the ongoing economic instability, when advertisers prioritize immediate performance results over long-term brand impact. In plain words, this means reliance on prior strategies is no longer a working solution. Instead, investing more into ad curation, programmatic direct deals, ad stack expansion with highly-viewable video ad formats and a GEO strategy adoption, for example, can have a positive impact on the publisher’s revenue results.